Grey what ?

Some of you might be asking this question, concerned that you’ve stumbled onto some really weird bird watching website. Well, don’t worry. This website might yet be weird, but it’s definitely not about bird watching.

Some time ago, I read a book that you might be familiar with, “The Black Swan” by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. The gist of the book is this: that in life, and particularly in the finance world, we as individuals are beholden to impactful & unpredictable events. While we often think we can predict what will happen, we are simply bad at predicting, or we characterize our predictions incorrectly. The net effect is that we, believing we can predict outcomes, get blindsided by what we can’t see, can’t understand, or just don’t understand properly.

These unanticipated events are “Black Swans”. The title refers to the fact that at the turn of the century, people believed all swans were white because no one had seen a non-white swan. The fact that a breed of black swan was eventually discovered highlights the fact that if one has never experienced something before, it doesn’t mean it can’t happen.

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